The political polarization in Brazil between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, faced a setback in the municipal elections on Sunday. The big winners were the center and center-right forces, while both Lula and Bolsonaro experienced losses that could affect their plans for the 2026 presidential elections, according to consulted experts.
In this context, the center emerged as an alternative to the high polarization that the country was experiencing. An example of this was the defeat of Bolsonaro's candidate in Goiania against another right-wing candidate, which evidenced divisions among the president's supporters and poses national consequences.
Analysts point out that two right-wing governors, Tarcisio de Freitas and Ronaldo Caiado, emerged stronger in the municipal elections, challenging Bolsonaro's supremacy in the political arena. Additionally, the figure of Pablo Marçal, a businessman who gained notoriety by being the third most-voted candidate in the São Paulo mayoral race, challenges the president's influence.
For his part, Lula remains the reference for the left, but it is still unclear whether he will seek reelection in 2026 or support another PT candidate. The pragmatic center-right, according to experts, was the great winner in these elections, proposing a rational and democratic alternative that rejects radicalism.
In the municipal elections, center and center-right parties like the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), the Progressives party (PP), and União Brasil obtained the majority of mayoralties. Both Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) and Lula's Workers' Party ranked lower.
One of Lula's most significant defeats was in the competition for the São Paulo mayoralty, where his candidate lost to the current mayor. Despite having a discreet backing from Bolsonaro, the victory was attributed to the support received from the governor of São Paulo, who emerges as a possible presidential alternative for the moderate right.
Although Bolsonaro's party obtained the majority of mayoralties in major cities, it lost key disputes that were of interest to them. This post-electoral scenario reflects a new political configuration in Brazil, where the center stands as a viable option against previous polarization.
