The surprising proposal by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to form an alliance between Pemex and Petrobras is generating significant interest from his Mexican counterparts. This initiative is particularly relevant in an environment where securing private partners has been a major challenge, and production has failed to rebound.
A little over a decade ago, when Mexico was opening its market with promising tenders for private companies, the relationship between these two regional energy powerhouses was one of frank rivalry for investor attention. In contrast, Pemex's strategy of closing its doors to private investment has prevented it from alleviating its substantial fiscal debt and worsened commitments with suppliers, leading to a loss of its credit rating from global agencies and complicating alliances with private firms.
The gesture made by the Brazilian president encourages analysts to believe that they can resume exploration in ultra-deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico, which have characteristics similar to Brazil's pre-salt layer. While Mexican production is struggling to reach 1.3 million barrels per day (half of what it was a little over a decade ago), Brazil's Petrobras, which maintains a mix of state and private control, now produces over 2 million barrels per day, making it one of the five most important companies globally.
The key to Petrobras's success, according to experts consulted, lies in its sustained investment in research and development of technology for deep and ultra-deepwater exploration; an area where Pemex has a structural weakness. Over the years, the paths of these two companies, born from nationalist ideals, have diverged. Since 2019, Pemex has closed its doors to private investment, a measure that President Claudia Sheinbaum's government is now trying to reverse partially, with little success, as seen in new mixed contracts.
"Petrobras has an interesting characteristic: it has become very good at geology and exploration under salt," explained Gonzalo Monroy, a consultant and director of GMEC, referring to the projects in the pre-salt fields on Brazil's southeastern coast. Along the same lines, Arturo Carranza, director of energy projects at Akza Advisors, explained that these are technically and operationally highly challenging projects that allowed Petrobras to reach a production of 2.4 million barrels per day by 2025 and continue increasing its output.
In contrast, Pemex has moved away from deepwater fields to focus on onshore ones. According to a publication in Reforma, only 8% of the 268 invited companies submitted any investment proposals.
For Fluvio Ruiz, a former Pemex board member, the areas of opportunity are vast and not limited to the business of exploration and exploitation of fields. "As the saying goes: friends are known in prison and in the hospital," he said, referring to the case of Mexican leftist leader Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, who visited Lula during his days in prison. Furthermore, Lula's proposal to President Sheinbaum came just days after Mexico celebrated the Oil Expropriation, where it was announced the installation of a Petroleum Advisory Commission, to be chaired by Engineer Cárdenas Solórzano.
These are areas that Pemex attempted to explore in the past in the Perdido area, considered a "jewel" of the deep waters. Carranza considered this a solution to the current bottleneck faced by Petróleos Mexicanos, which has only materialized a handful of mixed contracts in very small projects.
"I believe there is a lot to learn from and with Petrobras in many ways," said the physicist and energy analyst. He mentioned, for example, the petrochemical sector, cogeneration, and reducing the carbon footprint, experience in refineries, and the use of seismic interpretation technology, areas where he assured, "the potential is enormous."
For now, the promise of this alliance is only in the political realm, but with a high probability of materializing, according to the expert: "Knowing the CEO of Pemex, I don't see why he wouldn't," Ruiz Alarcón assured. Sheinbaum announced that Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas will preside over a Pemex advisory commission. Furthermore, the three specialists point to the favorable moment of ideological alignment between both governments and the personal closeness, not only with Sheinbaum, but also between the Cárdenas family and the Brazilian president. There, they warn, there is great potential for this alliance.
