Brazil's coffee sector has warned that trade distortions caused by tariffs imposed by the United States continue to affect exports, especially in the soluble coffee segment, despite a partial recovery in shipments, according to Argentina News Agency (NA).
The executive director of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Marcos Matos, explained that soluble coffee still faces 50% tariffs applied by the U.S. government, even after the general tariff that was in effect from August to November for other types of coffee was removed.
Matos noted that for 2026, Brazil's private sector is working with national authorities and U.S. associations to achieve a reduction in that rate in the first months of the next year.
"We depend on a critical stage, which is the grain filling, which occurs in January and February, and we need regular rains," he stated. If that scenario materializes, Brazil could have larger volumes and maintain prices that are still profitable for producers.
Export Balance for 2025 The year's balance showed a lower availability of coffee. After a record high in 2024, with 50.5 million bags exported, Brazil began 2025 with lower stocks and a smaller harvest. Between January and November 2025, exports reached 36.8 million bags, a 20% year-on-year decrease.
Tariffs and Ongoing Negotiations The so-called "tariff hike" pushed by former U.S. President Donald Trump since August 6, in protest of the sedition trial against Jair Bolsonaro, made Brazilian coffee more expensive for American consumers, the main destination market for the grain.
Production Expectations for 2026 After a 2025 marked by high international prices, Matos stated that Brazil enters 2026 with expectations of a more favorable harvest, although heavily conditioned by the climate.
"We are entering 2026 with hopes of a better harvest. However, the lower supply pushed prices up: the average value was $387 per bag, 60% more than in 2024, which allowed for $143 billion in revenue, a record for the period."
Tight Supply and Climate as a Key Factor Renato García Ribeiro, a researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), warned that plantations have not yet recovered from several years of adverse weather and recalled that coffee is a biennial crop.
Meanwhile, the head of Agribusiness Consulting at Itaú BBA bank, Cesar Castro Alves, considered that the climate outlook for the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 is more favorable, although he warned that the supply will remain restricted until the new harvest arrives on the market, which will only happen from September onwards.
According to projections by Itaú BBA, for the 2026/2027 harvest, world production could exceed consumption by about 7 million bags, but before that cycle, the availability of arabica coffee will remain tight and exports will continue to be conditioned by tariffs.
